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Sunday , October 23 2016

Is Michigan Senate Off the Table?

WAAR DECISION DESK 2014Is the Michigan Senate seat off the table for the GOP? Terri Lynn Land, once thought to be the Republicans’ best hope for taking the historically blue seat, might be a lost cause for the GOP’s path to a wave victory in November. First reported in The Hill, sources are reporting that the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) plans on pulling more than $850,000 in planned television advertising. Media buys are a key indicator that political observers use to gauge the competitiveness of a race. A reduction in media presence can indicate that a political committee is either confident in their candidate’s standing in the polls or, that they are cutting losses and reallocating funds to more competitive races.

Land began her candidacy with a strong showing in the polls. From January through April, Land consistently dominated Democrat challenger Gary Peters. However, Peters opened a lead In May and Land has not recovered since. Real Clear Politics has rated the race as “Leans Democrat” and has given the race the RCP Average of +7.8 advantage to Peters. Some political observers have pointed out that despite weak poll numbers, Land has outraised Peters, and according to her last FEC disclosure filing, has raised in excess of $8.7 million and has $4.8 million in the bank. Peters’ total haul is just shy of $7 million, and he has $3.2 million cash on hand as of the last filing.

The most recent poll of the race, conducted by The Detroit News, found that at least 15% of voters remain undecided. Land will need to identify and win this group of voters in order to emerge victorious from this race.

About Amanda Kohut

Amanda Kohut is a veteran political operative, and has campaigned in eleven states. Most notably, she was the Director of Research for Bob Turner's historic Special Election victory in 2011, and joined his Congressional staff as a Legislative Assistant. An alumna of George Washington University's Graduate School of Political Management, she currently lives and works in Arlington, VA, where she works in Government Affairs for the maritime industry.

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