It’s really buried in the write-up, but a new USA Today/Gallup Poll on voter sentiment may have a significant nugget that will start to reveal itself in the week to come. The new poll reveals a “big enthusiasm gap” between Republicans and Democrats heading into the final month of Election 2012. In fact, Republicans have a 16-point advantage in this survey. The Gallup Poll is going to switch to a “Likely Voter” model for their tracking numbers next week. It will be interesting to see if we see a significant move in Romney’s direction in the numbers. My guess is we will. You would expect that to some degree, just moving from “Registered Voters” to “Likely Voters.” But if it is a significant move, it may reflect a decision to begin using poll samples that more accurately reflect what the 2012 Electorate will actually look like as opposed to using the Dem +7 model from 2008. We’ll see!
USA TODAY: . . . Republicans have opened a big enthusiasm gap: 64% say they are more enthusiastic than usual about voting, compared to 48% of Democrats. In general, though, the results show an electorate that is less excited and less engaged than in recent presidential elections.
Democrats are less enthusiastic about voting than in 2008, although Republicans are a bit more enthusiastic. Fewer Democrats and Republicans say they have given a lot of thought to the election than they did in the falls of 2008 and 2004. . . . Read More